Macquarie forecasts $187B prediction market taker volume for 2026
Research firm Macquarie projects prediction market taker volume will reach $187 billion in 2026, a roughly ninefold increase from the prior year. The forecast covers event contracts across the sector. DraftKings is expected to capture a double-digit share of app-based activity. The analysis also names affected firms including Polymarket, Robinhood, Novig, Coinbase, and Underdog. The projection arrives as regulated platforms compete for sports-event contract volume during the NFL season.
The $187 billion figure reframes prediction markets from niche experiment to mainstream trading layer. Macquarie's double-digit DraftKings share target implies the sportsbook can recover from DKeX's weak NFL opening. That recovery threatens Kalshi's 76 percent weekend lead, which rests on a single FanDuel liquidity bridge.
Coinbase and Robinhood bring retail brokerage scale the sector has never had. The forecast's timing matters: platforms are spending on legal defense, partner infrastructure, and product redesign simultaneously. Multiple firms chasing the same taker pool will compress pricing and raise customer-acquisition costs. The operator with the cheapest cost of capital will fund the longest fight for share.