Poll finds 60% of Americans oppose betting on election results via prediction markets
A Reuters/Ipsos survey published Monday, October 12 finds that 60% of Americans oppose betting on election results through prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Opposition spans party lines, with about 61% of Republicans and nearly 70% of Democrats against such wagers. The poll provides concrete numbers on public sentiment toward political event contracts on federally regulated platforms. Neither specific vote shares beyond the topline nor full methodology details were disclosed in the published reports.
Bipartisan public opposition gives state attorneys general and federal regulators political cover to crack down on election-linked event contracts. Kalshi and Polymarket are already losing preemption fights in multiple states, and platforms must now weigh whether election contracts are worth defending when majorities in both parties want them gone.
The poll numbers arm lawmakers who want tighter rules without facing voter backlash. The CFTC's pending swap-rule proposal could force both platforms to restructure or pull political products entirely. The first operator to abandon political markets would signal that public opinion can override trading volume.
The poll reinforces a broader pattern of state-federal tension over prediction markets, joining the NFL's Supreme Court push to let states regulate these platforms as gambling and Kalshi's $3 million lobbying campaign to defend its federal preemption shield.