Bernstein lifts prediction market forecast tenfold to $10 trillion by 2035
Bernstein now predicts global prediction market volume will reach $10 trillion annually by 2035. The new forecast is ten times larger than its own $1 trillion by 2030 projection issued five months earlier. Financial assets are expected to overtake sports as the dominant contract category in driving that growth. The research firm published the revised outlook on September 22. Neither source specifies Bernstein's methodology or the assumptions behind the revision.
Bernstein's revision plants a $10 trillion flag that venture capitalists will use to price every platform in the sector. Kalshi's $22 billion valuation from its May raise now looks modest against this ceiling, but the same math makes every competitor's round more expensive to close. Founders presenting to investors face a narrower path: show how you capture share in a market Bernstein says grows 1,000 percent in nine years, or watch capital flow to the two platforms already pulling ahead.
The forecast also validates financial contracts over sports, which rewards Kalshi and Polymarket's event-contract engines over sportsbook-style rivals. Traders notice when research desks move this fast; the $1 trillion to $10 trillion leap in five months signals institutional conviction is hardening, not hedging.
Joins a recent run of bullish prediction-market signals from institutional research desks, alongside Kalshi's FanDuel market-making deal and Robinhood's Q2 volume beat that topped crypto and equities.