Bernstein raises Robinhood target to $160, sees prediction markets topping crypto
Bernstein raised its Robinhood price target to $160 on July 20, citing prediction markets, Rothera, and Robinhood Chain as key growth drivers. Analyst Gautam Chhugani projects 64% revenue growth through 2028 and expects prediction-market revenue to eclipse crypto trading revenue. Chhugani forecast $70 billion in U.S. trading volume across prediction markets, perpetual futures, and related products. Bernstein also said prediction markets could become a $1.7 billion business for Robinhood. HOOD shares rose on the note.
Bernstein's $160 target locks in prediction markets as the valuation story for Robinhood. That moves capital waiting on the sidelines: fund managers now have a credible benchmark for event-contract revenue and a timeline for it to pass crypto. The 64% growth projection through 2028 gives Robinhood leverage to accelerate Rothera development and pull liquidity building in-house faster. For Kalshi and ForecastEx, the clock shortens.
Robinhood still relies on their infrastructure today, but every analyst note pricing the vertical-integration play raises the cost of staying dependent. The $1.7 billion revenue line, if achieved, would make Rothera too valuable to leave powered by rivals. Competing exchanges must secure alternative distribution or accept that Robinhood's 27.4 million accounts will eventually generate that volume for its own rails.
Analysts at both Goldman Sachs and Bernstein have now raised Robinhood targets on prediction-market revenue, with Goldman's $137 target arriving just hours before Bernstein's $160 call.