Kalshi traders price 80% odds Bitcoin stays below $100K through 2026
Kalshi prediction-market traders are pricing an 80% probability that Bitcoin remains below $100,000 through the end of 2026, with contracts drawing $10 million in wagers. Bitcoin was trading near $64,600 as of Monday, June 22, 2026, roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high. Separately, Kalshi traders also forecast a potential low of $45,000, and market participants on the platform pointed to $58,000 by June 2026. The timing contracts reflect prevailing downward sentiment in the market, with an implied 19% chance Bitcoin hits $100,000 this year. A Kalshi BTC Up or Down 15-minute market also drew strategy discussion from retail traders.
These Bitcoin contracts give Kalshi a regulated sentiment benchmark that institutional desks can cross-check against Polymarket's competing crypto price readings. Any sharp divergence between the two CFTC-regulated venues on the same underlying turns their price gaps into actionable inter-venue signals.