Polymarket traders price 65% odds Bitcoin falls to $50,000 after inflation selloff

Polymarket traders are pricing elevated downside risk for Bitcoin across multiple time horizons. A daily contract on whether Bitcoin trades up or down on June 25, 2026 is live on the platform. Traders assign a 14% probability that Bitcoin reaches $57,500 before month-end, with roughly six days remaining in June. Separately, the market shows a 31% chance that Bitcoin dips below $40,000 at some point before December 31, 2026. The most bearish reading comes from a newer market pricing 65% odds that Bitcoin falls to $50,000, following a hot inflation print that has fueled a sharp selloff in cryptocurrency.