Polymarket traders price 65% odds Bitcoin falls to $50,000 after inflation selloff
Polymarket traders are pricing elevated downside risk for Bitcoin across multiple time horizons. A daily contract on whether Bitcoin trades up or down on June 25, 2026 is live on the platform. Traders assign a 14% probability that Bitcoin reaches $57,500 before month-end, with roughly six days remaining in June. Separately, the market shows a 31% chance that Bitcoin dips below $40,000 at some point before December 31, 2026. The most bearish reading comes from a newer market pricing 65% odds that Bitcoin falls to $50,000, following a hot inflation print that has fueled a sharp selloff in cryptocurrency.
Polymarket traders now price a 65% chance Bitcoin falls to $50,000 following a hot inflation print that fueled a sharp crypto selloff.
Kalshi and Polymarket now run parallel Bitcoin price contracts with divergent odds. Any sustained gap between the two CFTC-regulated venues creates actionable inter-venue arbitrage signals that traders and market makers can exploit.