Polymarket and Kalshi traders bet millions on year-end crypto price targets
Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are wagering millions on year-end 2026 price targets for Ethereum, Solana, and Zcash. Polymarket and Kalshi traders price a 69% chance Ethereum touches $3,000, a 60% chance Solana reaches $140, and a 41% chance on another crypto target. The contracts range from modest recoveries to spectacular moves. Both venues are actively pricing volatile year-end outcomes for major digital assets.
Neither Polymarket nor Kalshi offered perpetual futures until Kalshi launched them in May, so year-end contracts remain a key way to capture crypto volatility premiums that futures exchanges harvest daily. Traders locking principal until December 31 face opportunity cost every time Bitcoin spikes and resets, yet the binary structures cap downside at the entry price.
For Kalshi, these contracts must prove sticky enough to retain traders alongside its new Bitcoin perpetual futures; if traders drift to shorter-dated venues, the product pipeline stalls. Polymarket competes on the same tethered capital, and its five-minute Bitcoin contract already siphons attention from dated bets. The platform that converts crypto traders into repeat visitors outside football season will shape whether prediction markets become a crypto-parallel asset class or seasonal novelty.
Joins Polymarket's month-end Ether pricing and Kalshi's XRP contract as this month's active crypto-maturing slate, with both venues now running parallel crypto-price-target markets at multiple durations.