Polymarket prices Ether at 92% chance of hitting $2,600 by month-end
A Polymarket contract priced Ether at 92% probability to hit $2,600 before month-end as of September 23, 2026, following a 7% ETH gain over the prior 24 hours. The platform also hosted a market on Ethereum's September 16 price level, which had traded as of September 17, 2026.
The five-minute Bitcoin contract and the month-end Ether pricing test whether Polymarket can keep traders across two opposite time horizons. Ultra-short duration attracts crypto-native flow that perpetual futures exchanges already serve, while the dated Ether contract competes with Kalshi's year-end $4,000 market for capital willing to lock up principal. Traders who split positions across both structures face a labor cost: timing the five-minute settlement requires platform attention the monthly contract does not.
The 92% month-end print also leaves almost no upside, so new entrants pay full price for a contract that pays only if the unlikely 8% scenario occurs. Platform volume on the five-minute product will show whether prediction markets can peel traders from perpetual futures, or whether the product becomes a curiosity. The September month-end settlement gives a near-term scorecard on which duration Polymarket's crypto traders actually prefer.