Polymarket traders give Anthropic 79% odds of topping Bitcoin by year-end
Polymarket traders are pricing a 79% probability that AI company Anthropic will be worth more than Bitcoin by December 31. The market follows Anthropic's IPO filing, with traders wagering on a potential $1.5 trillion valuation for the private firm against the largest cryptocurrency. Separately, Polymarket's international platform has launched 24/7 perpetual futures on Anthropic's pre-IPO token $ANT with up to 10x leverage. Both products extend Polymarket's pre-IPO vertical into crypto-native AI exposure.
The 79% pricing on Anthropic versus Bitcoin sharpens the tension between AI valuation exuberance and crypto's established market cap. Traders betting on a private AI firm with no public trading history to eclipse the largest cryptocurrency are taking a concentrated view on IPO pricing power. For Polymarket, this contract and the $ANT perpetual futures draw overlapping AI-curious capital into two different risk structures — event contracts and leveraged tokens — without forcing traders off the platform.
That product density matters because Kalshi and other rivals are pitching complementary contracts, and fragmentation raises hedging costs. The year-end resolution window means any delay in Anthropic's public debut would crush the 79% consensus and trigger sharp repricing across both the valuation and timing markets.
Extends Polymarket's pre-IPO vertical into competing contract types after its earlier Anthropic valuation and timing markets diverged sharply from Kalshi's post-S-1 pricing.