Tema launches first pure-play prediction markets ETF with Kalshi and Polymarket stakes
Tema ETFs launched DICE, an actively managed exchange-traded fund targeting the prediction markets sector, on September 9, 2026. The fund includes pre-IPO access to Kalshi and Polymarket and allocates 15% of holdings across the two platforms. DICE also holds publicly traded constituents including Robinhood Markets. Tema, a New York-based fund manager, positioned the product as a way to gain sector exposure through public equities without directly trading event contracts. The SEC is still evaluating event-contract ETFs.
DICE turns prediction markets from a trading niche into an asset class that fits standard brokerage accounts. Retail investors can now hold Kalshi and Polymarket exposure without accreditation hurdles or direct platform access. For Tema, the risk is that pre-IPO valuations are set before the CFTC or states settle the regulatory boundary around event contracts.
A sudden gambling reclassification or SEC enforcement action against either platform would reprice the private holdings before any lockup expires. The fund also deepens Kalshi and Polymarket's dependence on public-market sentiment; a quarterly miss at Robinhood, which DICE holds, now drags the same narrative that lifts their private valuations. Competitors must decide whether to seek similar ETF inclusion or avoid the disclosure and correlation that come with it.
The first prediction-markets ETF arrives as Wall Street has made prediction markets a valuation pillar for Robinhood, with three brokerages now pricing the stock above $145 on event-contract revenue assumptions.