Robinhood Q3 earnings miss as event contract volume hits record high
Robinhood reported third-quarter earnings on October 28 that missed Wall Street expectations. The miss stemmed from losses tied to Robinhood Ventures Fund I, which offset gains elsewhere. Transaction-based revenue rose, with event contract trading volume reaching a record during the period. The company cited event contracts, Robinhood Chain, and tokenized stocks as continuing growth drivers. Analysts responded by cutting their price targets on the stock.
The record event contract volume shows prediction markets are now a core revenue stream, not a side bet. Robinhood Derivatives holds no designated contract market license of its own. Kalshi and the Rothera joint venture supply the exchange infrastructure that powers its listings. That partnership dependence is a live risk. The August volume dip showed retail traders abandon interrupted platforms within days.
Any regulatory action or state court ruling against a partner during peak NFL or election season would force instant volume migration with no fallback exchange. Competitors with direct CFTC licenses can pitch stability to users who felt that disruption. Bernstein's $1.7 billion 2028 prediction-market forecast assumes partnership resilience Robinhood cannot guarantee.