Bernstein cuts Coinbase target to $250, raises Circle on prediction market growth
Bernstein lowered Coinbase's price target from $330 to $250. The firm raised its outlook for Circle and Robinhood. The research note cites prediction markets and derivatives as key drivers shifting earnings outlooks. S&P Dow Jones Indices has partnered with Kalshi to expand event contracts and explore indexes using prediction-market data. Bernstein published the note on October 26, 2026. The Block and En.bloomingbit.io reported the story.
Bernstein's split verdict rewards platforms with direct prediction-market infrastructure while punishing those still building it. Circle's uplift comes from new products tied to derivatives growth; Coinbase's cut reflects a slower path to similar revenue. The Kalshi-S&P Dow Jones Indices partnership to build prediction-market indexes gives event contracts a mainstream data product they have lacked. Institutional investors now have a clean way to track the sector without trading it directly.
That validation helps Kalshi pitch partners and regulators alike. For Robinhood, already trading above $145 on prediction-market premiums, Bernstein's rosy estimates assume partner rails stay stable. Kalshi disruption would force instant migration across multiple venues. Competitors with internal CFTC licenses can now dangle reliability to nervous retail traders. The $1.7 billion 2028 revenue projection depends on partnerships Robinhood does not control.