Bernstein raises Robinhood revenue estimates on prediction market growth
Bernstein analysts raised Robinhood's revenue estimates through 2026, 2027, and 2028 while maintaining their price target at $160. Analyst Chhugani boosted top-line estimates by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027, and 3% for 2028, projecting event contracts will drive $650 million in revenue. The firm forecasts prediction markets could generate $1.7 billion by 2028 and potentially surpass cryptocurrency revenue. The revised estimates reflect growing analyst attention to prediction markets as a material business line for retail brokerages.
Robinhood's stock trades on a prediction-market premium that now depends on four partner venues — Kalshi, Rothera, Crypto.com, and OG.com — carrying the actual CFTC licensing. Bernstein's re-rating treats $1.7 billion in 2028 revenue as structural, yet Robinhood has no internal exchange to absorb volume if any partner fails or gets regulated out.
The CFTC's pending swaps proposal threatens exactly that restructuring for partner venues. A single partner collapse during NFL season would force instant migration across three remaining rails during peak trading hours. Competitors with direct CFTC designations can now pitch stability to traders who already fled the August volume dip. The $160 price target assumes partnership resilience that Robinhood cannot control directly.