Robinhood says bitcoin, gold and oil are fastest-growing prediction markets
Robinhood reported that bitcoin, gold, and oil event contracts are its fastest-growing prediction markets, outpacing traditional sports offerings. The platform entered the prediction market business through a partnership with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange. Growing user interest in macro and crypto-linked contracts is expanding the segment beyond political and sports outcomes. The company launched its prediction-market product in 2025 and has since broadened available markets.
Robinhood's commodity growth makes prediction markets a customer acquisition funnel for its broader trading and retirement products. That shifts the segment's value from revenue per trade to lifetime user value. Robinhood routes volume through multiple CFTC-registered venues including Kalshi, ForecastEx, Rothera and OG.com, with its own Rothera joint venture providing partial internal capacity.
A contract dispute or regulatory action against any single partner could still force volume migration. Meanwhile, CFTC swap-rule proposals and state gambling suits threaten every partner-dependent platform. Robinhood must lock long-term partner arrangements or expand direct CFTC capacity before state litigation fragments national markets.
Robinhood joins the expanding set of retail brokerages routing users through Kalshi's CFTC-registered infrastructure for event contracts, after Webull's similar crypto perpetuals partnership earlier in the week.