Kalshi and Polymarket users spend nearly $200 million on midterm election bets
Prediction market users have spent nearly $200 million on midterm election bets, according to an analysis of 1,408 open markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. As of Sunday evening, Kalshi data shows the most likely outcome in the November midterms is Democrats taking control of both the Senate and House. The spending figure covers gubernatorial and congressional races across both platforms. The analysis was reported Sunday.
The $200 million threshold tests whether political event contracts can sustain liquidity outside presidential years. Kalshi and Polymarket, midterm volume spread across dozens of state and congressional races creates a structural hedge against the calendar gap between national elections. Traders now have reason to keep capital deployed through November. That reduces seasonal churn that hurts market-maker profitability and exchange fee revenue.
The Democratic control pricing shows traders are dissecting split-outcome scenarios. This sophistication level attracts institutional flow. Kalshi needs this depth to justify its valuation talks and retain market-maker commitments already in place. A thin or volatile November settlement would hand state attorneys general evidence that these contracts lack pricing integrity.