Goldman Sachs sees event contracts absorbing retail trading outflows
Goldman Sachs says retail stock trading has fallen 40%, but the capital has not left markets. The firm suggests the money may shift into products offering a different experience, including options, leveraged funds, and event contracts. Robinhood's figures are cited in the analysis. The observation comes as Robinhood's event-contract revenue reaches $173 million in Q3 and its crypto revenue drops 55%, making prediction markets central to the platform's growth story.
Goldman Sachs is effectively endorsing event contracts as the next retail trading layer. That matters most for Robinhood, which already routes $173 million in quarterly prediction-market volume through Kalshi, Rothera, Crypto.com, and OG.com but holds no CFTC license itself. Goldman is right, Robinhood captures the inflow.
If partner stability cracks, it bleeds the same flow instantly. The August disruption proved retail traders abandon platforms within days. Competitors with direct CFTC designations can now pitch that resilience to shaken users. Bernstein's $1.7 billion 2028 forecast assumes the partnership chain never breaks. Robinhood's stock premium hinges on that bet.
Goldman's call joins Bernstein's $1.7 billion 2028 forecast and multiple analyst upgrades this quarter in treating Robinhood's prediction-market revenue as a standalone valuation pillar rather than a crypto sideshow.