Study finds over 82% of Polymarket wallets lost money in 2025
More than 82% of Polymarket wallets lost money on resolved wagers in 2025, according to research cited by KRDO and KIRO 7 News Seattle. The Motley Fool reported the figure, which highlights the risks of prediction markets for retail participants compared to traditional stock investing. The high loss rate on the crypto-native platform suggests event-contract trading remains challenging for most users despite growing mainstream attention.
The 82% loss rate lands as regulators and legislators are already probing retail harm. Senators Warren and Curtis have demanded internal trading data under bipartisan deadline, and state attorneys general in Ohio and Tennessee are watching headlines for evidence that event contracts are gambling products dressed as forecasting tools. High retail losses feed directly into those legal arguments and strengthen the hand of any regulator arguing that event-contract platforms need stricter consumer protection guardrails.
Polymarket cannot control how media frame its prices, but it will absorb the consequences of loss-rate stories used as ammunition. The platform's growth into mainstream attention has outpaced its ability to show sustainable user economics, and that gap is now a liability in multiple pending investigations. A second major study reinforcing this figure within the month would harden the narrative before any platform can respond with its own data.