Ninth Circuit denies Kalshi rehearing, starts Supreme Court clock
The Ninth Circuit on Wednesday denied Kalshi's request for a rehearing in its Nevada sports betting dispute, leaving an adverse panel ruling intact. The unanimous denial means no judge requested a full-court vote to reconsider. The decision gives Kalshi until February 2027 to seek review from the Supreme Court. The case centers on whether Kalshi's sports event contracts can operate in Nevada alongside traditional sportsbooks. The denial comes amid ongoing CFTC rulemaking on event contracts and parallel state enforcement fights.
The February deadline forces Kalshi to choose an expensive Supreme Court petition while fighting felony charges in Utah and civil suits in Ohio, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Missouri. Each state victory becomes template law the next attorney general copies, and Kalshi has already lost its federal shield twice. Co-founders Mansour and Lopes Lara face personal prison time in Utah, making state resistance costlier than any federal compliance.
The CFTC's swap-rule proposal sits in White House review, slower than any courtroom. A cert grant would freeze state momentum and give all platforms a single federal answer worth the litigation cost. Polymarket and Robinhood, which took Missouri orders without suing, must now decide whether Kalshi's fight or flight path is smarter.
The denial joins parallel state enforcement fights in Ohio, Tennessee, Louisiana, Missouri, and Utah felony charges against co-founders Mansour and Lopes Lara as the most severe state assault on a federally registered prediction market yet.