StoneX sees 45% upside for Robinhood, cites Layer 2 chain and prediction markets
Brokerage StoneX set a $170 price target for Robinhood, implying 45% upside. The firm cited two growth drivers: Robinhood Chain, a Layer 2 blockchain, and the company's prediction markets business. In the second quarter, Robinhood customers traded 13.6 billion event contracts. The report follows similar upgrades from Piper Sandler and Morgan Stanley, all framing event-contract revenue as core to the stock's valuation.
StoneX joins a closing circle of Wall Street firms that have made prediction markets the central pillar of Robinhood's valuation. Three brokerages now price the stock above $145 on the assumption that event-contract revenue sustains or grows. That concentrates risk on regulatory outcomes rather than trading performance. Any CFTC restriction or state gambling reclassification would hit earnings models harder than a revenue miss.
Piper Sandler forecasts another $320 million from football season alone through December, so the platform must prove it can sustain this stream without over-relying on any single partner or sport. Robinhood routes volume through Kalshi and its Rothera joint venture, so a partner dispute would force sudden infrastructure migration. The next vertical integration move will set the template for how brokerages source prediction markets.