Morgan Stanley upgrades Robinhood to $150 target on prediction market growth
Morgan Stanley upgraded Robinhood to a $150 price target on September 1, citing prediction markets as an underappreciated growth driver. The bank pointed to 13.6 billion event contracts traded in Q2, more than 10 times the prior-year level, as proof the brokerage can expand revenue beyond core trading. The note framed prediction markets as validating Robinhood's distribution capabilities and supporting a bullish case for the stock.
The $150 target embeds prediction markets as a material valuation pillar, not a speculative line item. Analysts tracking Robinhood must now model event-contract revenue as a persistent driver, not a seasonal spike. The 13.6 billion contract volume gives Morgan Stanley concrete numbers to cite in client conversations, moving the product from niche curiosity to institutional-grade talking point.
Competitor brokerages face pressure to show their own prediction market roadmap or risk losing growth-premium comparisons. Tenev's team gains leverage in negotiations with Kalshi and Rothera: a validated revenue stream strengthens Robinhood's hand on revenue-share terms. The coverage also raises the stakes for any regulatory reclassification; a gambling label would directly threaten the multiple Morgan Stanley just endorsed.