Piper Sandler raises Robinhood target to $145 on 29.7 billion event-contract outlook
Piper Sandler raised its Robinhood (HOOD) price target to $145, citing prediction-market growth. The firm's base case forecasts roughly 29.7 billion event contracts traded on the platform between September and December 2026, driven by football season demand. The upgrade pushed Robinhood's Cash Card metric to a record high, though the stock retreated. The forecast represents a more than 40% lift from the prior target.
Piper Sandler's forecast makes prediction markets a valuation pillar, not a side bet. Analysts modeling Robinhood must now assume 29.7 billion quarterly event contracts sustain through 2026. That shifts risk from trading desks to regulators: any CFTC restriction or state gambling classification would hit earnings models harder than revenue alone.
The forecast also exposes a supplier concentration problem. Robinhood routes volume through Kalshi and its Rothera joint venture, so any partner dispute forces immediate migration. The platform's next vertical integration move will set the template for how brokerages source prediction markets. Rivals now face investor pressure to disclose comparable revenue.
The $145 target is the second major brokerage upgrade in as many hours to hinge prediction-market revenue, after Morgan Stanley's $150 target embedded the same assumption.