Smarkets plans US prediction market launch as CFTC-regulated DCM
Smarkets is preparing to enter the US prediction market as a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM), according to CEO Trost. The UK-based betting exchange, already operating as a prediction market in its home market, aims to bring its model stateside under CFTC oversight. The planned launch includes a refreshed brand identity while retaining the company's core exchange-based approach. Separately, sports prediction market Novig has been recognized as a DCM by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing it to operate as a regulated exchange for event contracts.
Smarkets' pending DCM application adds another platform to the queue of CFTC-regulated event-contract venues seeking US market access. Its exchange-based model, proven in the UK, offers a different architecture than the sportsbook-derived designs of domestic competitors. That distinction matters because the CFTC is now actively revieweding two event-contract rules while state courts in Ohio and Tennessee have stripped Kalshi's federal preemption shield in those states.
Smarkets' entry timing will determine whether it launches into a unified federal market or a fractured landscape of state-by-state geofences. The platform that proves its model can navigate both federal registration and state gambling law will set the template for cross-border operators eyeing the US. Smarkets' brand refresh signals it expects to need consumer recognition distinct from its UK identity.