Prediction markets hit $50.6B July record
Prediction markets hit a record $50.6 billion in July trading volume. A Ninth Circuit panel heard consolidated arguments in April involving Kalshi and Robinhood over event contracts. The milestone comes with Congress already weighing bans and state attorneys general suing platforms. Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US drove the combined total. Casino.org reported that daily volume neared $2 billion and noted Rothera as a Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group partnership.
The $50.6 billion figure gives Congress concrete ammunition for the Senate bill to ban sports event contracts. Lawmakers can now cite hard numbers instead of theoretical harm. Kalshi faces active state suits in New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Washington plus a preemption appeal to the Second Circuit. A federal ban would override any court victory and strip its core sports vertical nationwide overnight.
Polymarket shares identical CFTC registration and identical exposure. Both platforms must now decide whether accelerated self-regulation on insider surveillance and tax reporting can slow legislative momentum. The platform that frames the first credible compliance story may influence whether the ban covers all event contracts or carves out non-sports markets.
The record volume follows the World Cup surge tracked seven days ago, cementing Kalshi and Polymarket as recurring political targets now armed with hard monthly numbers.