Polymarket launches SpaceX and Anthropic pre-IPO valuation contracts
Polymarket has launched event contracts on SpaceX and Anthropic pre-IPO valuations, letting traders bet on how large the private companies could become before any potential public offerings, according to MSN and Investopedia. The launch, reported on May 21 and May 23, extends Polymarket beyond its core political and macro markets into startup and venture-backed company outcomes, and the contracts do not confer equity ownership. Yahoo Finance noted the launch comes as the SEC has paused its review of event-based exchange-traded fund applications. Polymarket's expansion into private company event contracts was flagged in earlier LinkedIn posts as early as May 20, though initial announcements lacked specific company names or launch timing.
Kalshi must now defend its standalone sourcing model against Polymarket's Nasdaq-backed data partnership on the same SpaceX and Anthropic contracts. Any persistent pricing gap will cost Kalshi institutional flow as traders arbitrage the two venues.
Polymarket becomes the second platform to field SpaceX-linked contracts after Kalshi, which already runs Starship 12 launch timing, a Tesla-SpaceX merger, and pre-IPO valuation markets, as both venues now compete directly on private-company prediction products with divergent data partnerships.