Polymarket bettors beat Wall Street analysts 78.5% to 43.7% on earnings calls
Prediction market bettors on Polymarket correctly forecast quarterly earnings outcomes 78.5% of the time, based on data from 247wallst.com and Aol.com. Wall Street analyst consensus achieved 43.7% accuracy in the same comparison. The data covers corporate earnings calls on the CFTC-regulated platform. The gap between crowd-sourced forecasting and traditional sell-side research accuracy was published on September 21 and 22.
The accuracy gap turns Polymarket into a credible alternative dataset for traders who build positions around earnings releases. Equity desks now face a direct competitor that costs nothing to read and updates in real time. Analysts at banks and independent research shops must show why their paid consensus still carries premium value, or watch allocation shift toward free crowd signals.
For Polymarket, the headline is user acquisition fuel: earnings seasons recur quarterly, creating predictable traffic spikes. The platform's next task is widening the single-stock earnings menu fast enough to retain traders who arrive for beats and misses. A sustained accuracy lead over two or three more quarters would force sell-side incumbents to respond with their own prediction-market arms or revised pricing, not dismissive notes.