Kalshi traders bet XRP retests $1 even as Bitcoin targets $67.5K–$68K
Kalshi traders are pricing bearish odds that XRP will retest its multi-month low around $1 in August, with the token holding near that level amid volatile trading. Bitcoin optimism runs higher, with Kalshi contracts pointing toward $67,500 to $68,000 for the month. The divergent sentiment reflects continued inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and XRP's struggle to recover from a prolonged downturn. Both crypto assets have entered a month that has historically been weak for digital markets.
Kalshi's crypto contracts now serve as a real-time sentiment gauge between two major tokens, not just Bitcoin alone. The XRP bearish read leaves little margin for error if the token holds above $1, forcing a rapid repricing that would strain thin prediction-market books. Bitcoin optimism powered by ETF inflows creates a split tape that active traders can exploit if the divergence persists across venues.
Polymarket's recent TWAP settlement change matters here: the mechanism is designed to resist short-term price spikes that could distort these crypto contracts near expiration. Robinhood's new 15-minute crypto contracts add another layer, letting traders arbitrage speed against Kalshi's monthly resolution window. The platform that settles most reliably will keep sophisticated traders as federal scrutiny intensifies, and Polymarket's TWAP settlement change gives it an integrity edge Kalshi has not yet matched.