Kalshi traders raise year-end Bitcoin odds to 46%, Ethereum $4K at 23%
Kalshi traders are pricing a 23% probability that Ethereum reaches $4,000 by the end of 2026, with the contract gaining attention as ETH rebounded above $2,700. Separately, Kalshi's Bitcoin market shows rising year-end optimism, with traders assigning a 46% chance that bitcoin hits $100,000 in 2026. Near-term sentiment has cooled: the odds of bitcoin reaching $90,000 in September have slipped to 39%. The September bitcoin forecast peak sits at $97,000.
Kalshi now runs two actively watched crypto price markets against Polymarket's competing durations, creating a direct fight for the same trader capital. The divergence between Kalshi's 46% year-end Bitcoin print and Polymarket's month-end levels lets sophisticated traders arbitrage time-horizon differences, but only if both platforms maintain tight enough spreads to justify the cross-venue work.
The cooling September $90,000 odds suggest short-term bitcoin momentum is stalling even as year-end optimism builds, a split that rewards traders who correctly diagnose whether the rally is delayed or dead. Kalshi, repeat crypto flow depends on whether these contracts resolve fast enough to satisfy users trained by political and sports markets to expect quick payoffs. The platform that proves more accurate on year-end settlement gains credibility for recurring crypto contracts.
Kalshi's crypto contract joins Polymarket's five-minute Bitcoin and month-end Ethereum markets as the two platforms now run four active crypto-dated contracts between them, testing which duration traders favor.