Stocks
Kalshi traders price 74% odds of SpaceX-Tesla merger by May 2027
Kalshi prediction-market traders are pricing a 74% probability that SpaceX and Tesla will merge by May 2027. The article notes skepticism about the deal's logic, stating that while a merger would be nostalgic, it would not make much business sense.
Why this matters?
Shows retail and institutional traders are willing to price complex corporate M&A outcomes on Kalshi, expanding the platform's use case beyond politics and sports into hard-to-model deal scenarios.
The bigger picture
Joins Polymarket in pricing the Tesla-SpaceX merger, with the two platforms now offering divergent reads on timelines in a live experiment on how prediction markets process corporate M&A narrative.