Kalshi publishes updated NFC playoff odds led by 49ers at 92%
Kalshi posted updated NFC playoff probability markets on October 16. The San Francisco 49ers lead at 92%, followed by the Minnesota Vikings at 80%, the Los Angeles Rams at 64%, the Detroit Lions at 59%, and the Seattle Seahawks at 54%. The Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers both sit at 49%. The Dallas Cowboys also appeared in the update. The figures reflect live trader pricing on Kalshi's regulated platform. A separate Kalshi Stanley Cup Finals market shows four teams bunched tightly at the top, though specific names and probabilities were not disclosed.
These posts illustrate Kalshi's recurring liquidity problem. The NFC and Stanley Cup odds mimic widely available sportsbook lines, so price-sensitive traders have no reason to route size through Kalshi's order book. Citizens Bank flagged this pattern by NFL Week 3, and it now extends across football and hockey.
Kalshi's 76% NFL volume lead rests on FanDuel's market-making partnership, per Needham data. That liquidity is not under Kalshi's control. If FanDuel revokes or renegotiates the bridge, Kalshi lacks a ready replacement. The platform must build independent two-way flow before mid-season. Without it, every viral odds snapshot risks becoming marketing pageantry that serious traders dismiss.