Kalshi reportedly eyes $40B valuation while Polymarket targets $20B
Kalshi is reportedly targeting a $40 billion valuation while Polymarket aims for $20 billion, according to Benzinga. Polymarket was valued near $8 billion when Intercontinental Exchange committed $2 billion to it last October. The report questions whether either platform is genuinely exploring an initial public offering. The figures come as both CFTC-registered platforms posted record $50.6 billion in combined July volume.
The gap between the two targets — $40 billion for Kalshi, $20 billion for Polymarket — signals that investors are pricing a winner-take-most outcome rather than a duopoly. Polymarket's $8 billion valuation from Intercontinental Exchange's $2 billion commitment last October must now more than double to close the spread with Kalshi.
Record July volume of $50.6 billion gives both platforms the growth narrative they need to pitch those multiples, but lawmakers can cite the same number to justify a federal ban on sports event contracts. The platform that lands its round first may lock in terms before a bipartisan Senate bill or state enforcement shifts the risk calculus. A stalled raise would force the laggard to accept harsher terms or shelve expansion. Either way, the valuations assume regulatory forbearance that neither platform controls.