Kalshi traders price Tesla-SpaceX merger at 70% as they doubt June IPO
Kalshi traders are pricing a 70% probability that Tesla and SpaceX will merge within the next year, according to a May 17 post on the platform's X account that drew 96 replies without disclosing contract details or open-interest data. The figure emerged as Kalshi bettors separately doubt SpaceX will price its IPO in June, despite reports that Elon Musk's rocket company has accelerated its planned $2 trillion offering to a June 11-12 window. The skepticism on Kalshi mirrors prediction market pricing elsewhere showing low odds of a May filing, with analysts warning the mega-IPO could pull capital from other stocks and risk post-debut underperformance.
Kalshi is running contracts on a potential corporate merger, a personal net-worth milestone, and entertainment review scores simultaneously. That mix tests whether the CFTC will tolerate event markets drifting from macro-political and economic outcomes into speculative corporate action and celebrity wealth tracking.
Kalshi's third high-profile entertainment or personal-wealth contract this week — after trillionaire odds and Rotten Tomatoes scores — shows the platform expanding beyond politics and economics into cultural and individual net-worth events.