Kalshi launches granular Bitcoin range markets, flags liquidity risk
Kalshi launched range-based Bitcoin price markets for Friday's close on July 21, splitting odds between a $66,500 and $67,500 band. The contracts use a more granular format than simple above-or-below thresholds. A separate live contract prices 15% odds that Bitcoin reaches $100,000 by year-end. Kalshi separately posted a liquidity notice for its Bitcoin price event contract (KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31), warning that liquidity may decrease as the contract nears expiration.
Granular range markets let traders express sharper views than binary thresholds, but Kalshi's liquidity notice reveals the product is not yet deep enough to support size. The warning matters most for anyone building strategies around these midpoints: thinner books near expiration mean wider spreads and slippage on exit.
Robinhood's 15-minute Bitcoin contracts are already compressing time horizons and stealing active traders. Kalshi needs exclusive retail volume to support its Bitcoin perpetual futures launch and $40 billion valuation target. If range contracts cannot hold liquidity, traders will drift toward venues with tighter settlement cycles. The Friday close format is a test: prove depth, or cede the segment to faster alternatives.