IG chief questions economic value of Kalshi and Polymarket volume records
IG Group's chief executive questioned the volume figures promoted by Kalshi and Polymarket, saying their economic value is hard to establish. The remarks from the head of the U.K.-based trading firm come as both platforms have touted record trading activity. Volume metrics have become a central competitive talking point among prediction-market operators. IG Group operates regulated trading venues and competes indirectly with event-contract platforms for retail trader attention.
The IG chief's skepticism shifts the competitive frame from raw volume to economic substance, a potentially damaging redefinition for platforms that have used headline numbers to attract users and investors. Kalshi and Polymarket have leaned on record figures to justify growth narratives to regulators and capital markets; if institutional voices dismiss that metric, the platforms lose a core argument. Traders who pick venues based on liquidity depth may start discounting platforms with high turnover but thin profit extraction.
The risk is that a volume skepticism meme takes hold among institutional observers and reframes prediction markets as engagement products rather than financial infrastructure. Kalshi's 76% NFL volume lead and Polymarket's election positioning both look different if the market questions what those numbers actually mean for platform economics. IG Group trades on the London Stock Exchange and speaks to institutional investors who allocate to fintech growth; its framing carries weight with that audience.
Adds a fifth distinct voice to recent prediction-market criticism, joining religious, academic, state regulatory, and rival-platform scrutiny of whether volume metrics justify the sector's growth claims.