College football prediction market trading reaches $790M
College football prediction market trading reached $790 million this season, with Kalshi capturing 69.9% of volume and Polymarket ranking second. Novig posted 4.3%, DraftKings Predictions 3.5%, and Underdog roughly 1%.
Kalshi's 92.1% weekly share has collapsed to a bare majority in football-specific flow, as Polymarket closes the gap within months of entering US sports. That speed of share erosion forces Kalshi to defend pricing leadership during the highest-volume quarter of the year. Novig's existing sportsbook user base adds a third competitor chasing the same bettor pool.
FanDuel's market-making on Kalshi NFL contracts gives that platform institutional depth, but also creates dependency on a single liquidity source. The pricing pressure is immediate: if Polymarket matches Kalshi's order-book quality while carrying lower fees, trader migration could accelerate before the playoff cycle ends. Platforms that lose sports volume now risk entering the midterms with weakened brand recognition and thinner liquidity.
Polymarket's NFL volume surge extends a three-way battle for sports market share among Kalshi, Polymarket, and Novig, each now posting nine-figure sports weeks as FanDuel supplies liquidity to one side of the field.