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The Resolution.

Matchbook launched UK prediction market in January ahead of US plans

Matchbook, a sports betting exchange majority-owned by Zeljko Ranogajec and operating for 20 years, debuted its prediction market platform in the United Kingdom in January 2026 before expanding to the United States as early as March, interim CEO Ronan McDonagh told Bloomberg. The Guernsey-registered platform shifted from fractional odds to probability-based Yes/No percentages for binary outcomes, mirroring U.S. prediction-market design. Its UK launch runs under Matchbook's existing UK Gambling Commission exchange licence and includes a white-label version for easyBet. Parent Triplebet Ltd. and U.S. partner RSBIX LLC, led by former Trump defense attorney Jeff Ifrah, filed CFTC paperwork in September. McDonagh said Matchbook is open to partnering with a recognized brand for its American launch and expects to compete on day one due to its existing exchange technology, liquidity, and market-making partners.

 
Why this matters?
 

RSBIX LLC's pending CFTC application underpins Matchbook's planned U.S. expansion. Any approval would give the venue federally licensed status, directly challenging Kalshi and Polymarket's position in U.S. sports event contracts.

 
The bigger picture
 

Matchbook's U.S. entry, routed through RSBIX LLC, targets federally regulated prediction markets.

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California AG Bonta joins 37-state coalition defending gambling laws against Kalshi

 
Why this matters?
 

A 37-state coalition significantly raises the legal and political stakes for Kalshi's sports-contract expansion; an adverse outcome could force state-by-state geoblocking and create a template for other states to challenge prediction market products.

 
The bigger picture
 

Brings the running tally of state attorneys general actions against Kalshi to at least five — California, Ohio, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Minnesota — as Bonta's 37-state coalition amplifies the legal challenge beyond individual state-court fights into a coordinated interstate front.

 

Bitbank warns users of account suspensions for Polymarket-linked transfers in Japan

 
Why this matters?
 

Polymarket must now navigate a new category of banking risk: regulated exchanges proactively blacklisting its transactions under national gambling laws. Any spread of this screening model to other Asian markets would force Polymarket to build parallel fiat on-ramps or narrow its user base.

 
The bigger picture
 

Becomes one of the first regulated crypto exchanges to screen for and restrict prediction-market flows under national gambling laws.

 

BitMart US enters prediction markets through Plaee in CFTC-regulated push

 
Why this matters?
 

BitMart US must prove it can pull volume from Plaee's liquidity pools fast enough to matter before the NFL season locks in the institutional market-making relationships that DraftKings is already pitching for DKeX.

 
The bigger picture
 

Joins DraftKings and Crypto.com in a burst of CFTC-regulated platform launches as incumbents race to list sports event contracts before institutional liquidity solidifies around Kalshi and Robinhood.

 

Bernstein projects Robinhood prediction market revenue to hit $586M in 2026

 
Why this matters?
 

A $586 million revenue line would make prediction markets a material driver of Robinhood's overall business, validating the product category for other brokerages considering similar launches.

 
The bigger picture
 

Third sell-side firm to embed Robinhood prediction markets into equity research after Cantor and Deutsche Bank, as Bernstein's $586 million 2026 revenue forecast turns event-contract traction into a valuation input analysts can no longer ignore.

The Resolution.
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