UK regulator discusses lifting retail ban on prediction markets
The UK Financial Conduct Authority is discussing a possible end to the retail ban on prediction markets and event contracts, though no formal policy change or consultation has been announced. Coinbase, Robinhood, and DraftKings have each launched products positioning for a UK regulatory opening. The talks come as South Korea's digital-asset legislation stalls and Poland remains deadlocked on crypto regulation, with no timeline or scope set for any UK shift.
A UK opening would give CFTC-registered platforms a concrete alternative as their US home market fragments under state gaming enforcement. Kalshi and Polymarket already reach British users through offshore access; formal FCA approval would let them localize payments, marketing, and compliance rather than operate in regulatory gray space. The 2019 binary-options ban was absolute, so any new regime would need safeguards that add compliance cost.
For platforms, the sequencing stakes are sharp. UK approval before a Supreme Court decision on US preemption would diversify revenue and demonstrate regulatory credibility to other wavering jurisdictions. The risk is FCA delay. British financial rule changes often span years of consultation, and the regulator has floated no timeline. Platforms must decide now whether to build UK compliance teams on speculation or wait and cede first-mover position to rivals.
The FCA's latest outreach joins a running UK storyline that began with the Gambling Commission's review of the 2019 binary-options ban, positioning Britain as a potential first-mover among major economies while US platforms fight state-level preemption battles at home.