UK regulator weighs lifting ban on US-style prediction markets
The Financial Conduct Authority is discussing whether to lift the UK's ban on US-style prediction markets tied to financial outcomes, according to the Times. The talks with trading platforms follow growth in Britons using American sites including Kalshi and Polymarket. No specific proposal or timeline has been disclosed. The potential shift would ease long-standing domestic restrictions on financial event contracts. The regulator has not named which platforms it consulted.
Kalshi and Polymarket stand to gain immediate access to a major market that has been legally closed to them. British traders currently breach UK rules to reach American platforms, so formal access would convert a legal liability into a customer base. The FCA signal follows parallel pressure from overseas trading growth, not from platform lobbying alone. That framing matters because it suggests the regulator is responding to a leak in its own fence rather than initiative from CFTC-registered venues.
Any rule change will need detailed contract specifications, and the absence of a timeline leaves both platforms in planning limbo. Competitors without CFTC registration would face a steeper credibility climb to enter alongside established American names. The move would also test whether British regulators accept the CFTC's event-contract framework as a model worth importing.