Trepa and Fireplace shut down as Kalshi and Polymarket grab 93% of volume
Prediction market platforms Trepa and Fireplace announced shutdowns within 90 minutes of each other on August 10, both telling users to withdraw funds. The closures came as Kalshi and Polymarket now command 93% of sector trading volume, according to the sources. The twin exits illustrate how liquidity and distribution channels have become decisive competitive moats. Crypto.com and Trump Media are adjusting their prediction market operations, the sources note.
The closures leave active traders with fewer alternatives to the two dominant venues, concentrating price discovery and liquidity risk. Kalshi and Polymarket's combined 93% share means their technical outages or policy shifts now affect nearly the entire market. For remaining smaller platforms, the exits remove potential acquisition targets that could have accelerated user growth.
The 90-minute timing suggests both Trepa and Fireplace faced the same structural barrier — likely liquidity or brokerage distribution — rather than a firm-specific failure. Crypto.com and Trump Media adjusting their operations signals more consolidation ahead. Traders who valued Fireplace's terminal interface lose a specialized tool that neither Kalshi nor Polymarket directly replaces.