Prediction markets hit fourth straight weekly volume record at $23.9B
Prediction markets recorded a fourth consecutive weekly volume high, reaching $23.9 billion in the week ending October 11 per CryptoRank.io. For the NFL Week 5 weekend alone, notional trading topped $10 billion according to Needham data cited by Covers.com. Kalshi led with a 71% share of Sunday's $5.54 billion in notional volume, extending its lead from prior weeks. The weekly figure covers the same period that saw FanDuel making markets inside Kalshi's platform.
Kalshi's 71% share of a $10 billion NFL weekend puts enormous weight on a single liquidity bridge. FanDuel's market-making role, active since before NFL Week 3, is now the difference between record headlines and a-typical Sunday. Needham data shows that share fell from 76% earlier in the month, while Citizens Bank research flags eroding pricing edge on single-game markets. That compression matters.
FanDuel is simultaneously improving its own combo pricing, and DraftKings' DKeX sits at just 3% share, eager to recover. If FanDuel withdraws or renegotiates terms, Kalshi has no replacement for that flow. The platform must either lock in the partnership long-term or build independent depth before the sportsbook rebuilds its own event-contract stack. The operator with superior combo pricing by mid-season could flip these share numbers fast.