Novig hits $1.8bn in 30-day volume to rank third among prediction markets
Novig, a sports-only peer-to-peer prediction exchange co-founded by Jacob Fortinsky and Kelechi Ukah, reached $1.8 billion in 30-day trading volume to become the third-largest U.S. prediction market. The milestone follows the company's expansion into Sydney, Australia. Novig offers peer-to-peer matching without traditional sportsbook margins. The company is backed by Pantera. The news comes as the CFTC probes the sector.
Novig's volume surge arrives at the worst possible legal moment. A New York judge already blocked Novig and ruled its sports event contracts are sports betting, stripping the platform of its core federal preemption defense. The exchange must now choose between pursuing state gambling licenses or exiting its second-largest U.S. market.
Kalshi and Polymarket face parallel state courtroom erosion, but Novig is the only top-three venue without diversified non-sports revenue to cushion a sports-only shutdown. Pantera's backing gives it capital to fight, yet every day of litigation burns runway while peer-to-peer liquidity bleeds across state lines. The Sydney expansion looks less like growth and more like a hedge against American regulatory collapse.
Novig joins Kalshi as the second top-tier platform to have a state judge reject its federal preemption defense outright, deepening the pattern of state courts treating CFTC registration as no shield against gambling-law shutdowns.