Trader bets $2.3M against Japan beating Sweden on Polymarket
A trader placed a $2.3 million wager against Japan defeating Sweden on Polymarket on June 26, 2026, according to a Polymarket Sports social media post. The post did not specify exact payout odds or whether the position was specifically a draw or a Sweden victory. Separately, a whale bought $56,397 on France in Polymarket's Norway vs. France market, pushing implied odds to 63%, according to on-chain data flagged by Binance Square on Friday, June 26. Both trades continue a pattern of large pseudonymous positions on World Cup event contracts at the platform during the tournament period. The Japan-Sweden bet represents one of the larger individual sports wagers publicly tracked on Polymarket in recent coverage.
Polymarket's whale-driven liquidity is attracting block-size sports bets that rival traditional sportsbook futures, but anonymous one-off wagers do not build repeatable institutional depth. Kalshi and Robinhood's Rothera test are actively competing for this same high-stakes flow with structured alternatives.
Polymarket's World Cup whale activity joins a record-volume week where a single winner market surpassed most exchanges' entire event-contract book, as Kalshi runs 48 parallel markets on the same outcome with both CFTC-registered venues now pricing France-Norway at identical 62% lines.