Kalshi and Polymarket price USMNT at 61% to beat Australia in World Cup match
Kalshi and Polymarket traders are pricing the US men's national soccer team at roughly 61-62% probability to defeat Australia in a World Cup match on Friday, June 19 at Lumen Field in Seattle, according to SI.com and DeFi Rate. Kalshi's own X posts separately noted that US World Cup outright odds have surged fivefold since the tournament began. Germany also drew Kalshi trading interest, with traders pricing a 69% chance to beat Ivory Coast in their June 20 Group E match. The match pricing comes as soccer's popularity in the US continues to grow and prediction market volume for the tournament has climbed sharply.
Robinhood's same-day Rothera test gives World Cup flow an easy off-ramp from Kalshi. Any sustained migration of retail and high-size traders onto Robinhood's alternative venue threatens the volume Kalshi needs to justify its market-making partnerships.
Joins a burst of seven-figure World Cup match volume on Kalshi reported just yesterday, as the platform's soccer markets absorb simultaneous pressure from Robinhood's Rothera test and Polymarket's viral headline bets.