Susquehanna records worst sports trading loss as Knicks comeback drives Kalshi volume record
The New York Knicks' historic 29-point comeback in NBA Finals Game 4 on Wednesday generated a record trading day for Kalshi and the worst sports-related loss ever for market maker Susquehanna International Group. Retail traders on the platform extracted roughly $22 million from market makers by holding positions on the Knicks at long odds during the game. The game-winner market ranked among Kalshi's top 10 most traded markets of all time with $171.6 million in total volume. The outcome highlights how dramatic live-sports results can produce lopsided payouts when retail flow concentrates against institutional market makers in real-time event contracts.
Susquehanna's record loss proves that single-game volatility in live sports event contracts can inflict institutional-grade damage, raising the bar for risk models at every market maker now building prediction market desks. DRW, Wintermute and IMC must price the tail risk of real-time sports outcomes or face similar drawdowns as they scale liquidity on Kalshi and Polymarket.