Survey: Nearly 8 in 10 prediction market users say they lost money
A new survey found that nearly 8 in 10 prediction market users say they lost money. The report covers platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, which offer wagers on elections, weather, and other events. The article is an interactive feature; the body provides only the topline finding and platform names with no further methodology, sample size, or demographic detail. The Economist separately published analysis finding that prediction markets struggle to produce accurate forecasts in primary elections.
Retail trader losses on this scale threaten the core pitch that prediction markets pool collective wisdom into reliable forecasts. If four of five users walk away poorer, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket face a recruitment crisis: negative word-of-mouth spreads faster than any marketing budget can counter. The finding arrives as both venues already defend their election contracts against integrity attacks from state attorneys general and members of Congress.
Poor user outcomes give opponents a simple morality argument to pair with their technical ones. Platforms cannot easily rebut the survey without full methodology, which the story does not provide. Any replication of the 8-in-10 figure would dominate pre-election hearings and chill new account sign-ups when both companies need volume most.