Study estimates Americans traded billions on Polymarket's banned offshore platform
A study released June 11 estimates Americans have traded billions of dollars on Polymarket's offshore platform despite its ban on US users, with offshore volume reaching $9 billion in April compared to $1.3 billion on the regulated US version. Polymarket acquired the CFTC-licensed exchange QCEX in 2025 and operates domestically under a CFTC order of designation, but US traders continue to circumvent geoblocks. Four years after a $1.4 million CFTC settlement and agreement to block American users, enforcement of those prohibitions remains under scrutiny. Researchers found traders have funneled substantial sums into the crypto-based prediction market, bypassing regulatory restrictions designed to exclude them.
Polymarket's CFTC-licensed US operation now faces dual pressure: the agency can use the study's volume figures to justify stricter geoblock audits or consent-order amendments, while DOJ can cite persistent US access as evidence the platform's controls are inadequate for its 2022 settlement commitments.
Study estimating billions in US offshore Polymarket trading joins DOJ and CFTC charges against a Google engineer using search data to profit on the platform, tightening the compliance spotlight on Polymarket's surveillance of American user activity.