CFTC proposes rule to restrict war and conflict event contracts
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on June 10 proposed a rule to restrict prediction market contracts tied to war and conflict events. The notice of proposed rulemaking seeks public comment on establishing clearer regulatory boundaries for event contracts involving enumerated activities under the Commodity Exchange Act. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig has signaled the agency's intent to police crypto-linked prediction markets, a stance that gained urgency after the commission asserted jurisdiction over a Polymarket bitcoin contract following a mid-contract rule change. The proposal complements a broader framework the agency unveiled the same day to formalize rules for sports event contracts nationwide.
Kalshi and other CFTC-registered platforms must now screen markets for latent war or assassination exposure even when contracts lack explicit conflict references. Any listing that crosses the proposed line risks enforcement action once the rule is finalized.
Joins a separate rulemaking published the same day that would impose parallel limits on sports event contracts, meaning Kalshi and Crypto.com now face two concurrent comment periods that together define what their platforms can legally list.