Stokastic launches public ledger grading its Sims against Kalshi MLB markets
Data provider Stokastic launched a public ledger grading daily gaps between its simulated home-run probabilities and Kalshi's MLB home run market settlements. The tool records each hitter's market price against the Stokastic Sims model output and is updated daily. The product appears to be a recurring offering rather than a one-time analysis. Both the ledger and the edge board are published on Stokastic's own site. Kalshi comment was reported.
A third-party model broadcasting daily edge against Kalshi prices turns market inefficiency into a public signal. Sharp traders already screen for stale lines; Stokastic automates that hunt and posts it gratis. Kalshi, the risk is visible mispricing on a thin baseball vertical that draws arbs at zero acquisition cost.
The platform must now price these contracts faster or watch informed flow pick off stale marks without bringing new liquidity. Stokastic, the play is brand authority: if the ledger proves predictive, sportsbook and DFS operators may license the Sims feed rather than build rival models. The real test is whether Kalshi tightens spreads in response, or whether baseball contract volume is too small to justify the market-making spend.