Robinhood CEO sees crypto prediction markets overtaking sports
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said crypto event contracts will eventually overtake sports in trading volume on the platform. Tenev told CNBC's Jim Cramer on 'Mad Money' that Robinhood is already seeing strong demand for crypto-linked event contracts. Robinhood's event-contract business, launched in 2024, is currently split between sports and crypto as of 2026, Tenev said on Monday, September 21, 2026. Promotions and market volatility have driven the crypto-side activity.
Tenev's forecast would reshape where Robinhood's partners place their bets. Crypto.com and OG.com, the exchanges in which Robinhood just took minority stakes, now face pressure to build out a crypto-event-contract pipeline that can outpace sports. The Q2 prediction-market revenue of $156 million already tops crypto and equities, so any share shift within that segment moves the stock. Piper Sandler's $320 million football-season projection anchors expectations through December; if crypto contracts steal volume earlier, analysts must recalibrate mid-season.
Kalshi and the Rothera joint venture still clear much of Robinhood's volume. Partner concentration means Robinhood cannot switch rails quickly. A crypto surge that outruns sports-contract infrastructure would leave Robinhood captive to whichever partner adapts fastest, or force costly migration during the NFL run. The valuation thesis above $145 assumes smooth execution; Tenev's own forecast introduces a demand variable that could strain the partner stack he just assembled.