Reddit user and Arkham Intelligence launch competing Polymarket forecasting skill rankings
A Reddit user shared a free leaderboard that ranks Polymarket traders by forecasting skill rather than profit, arguing that existing leaderboards mostly reflect who bets the most money. Separately, Arkham Intelligence launched Prediction Market Elo on June 29, a system that ranks Polymarket traders by forecasting accuracy; its top forecaster has achieved a 66.1% win rate. A third Reddit post proposed building market-making tools for Polymarket and Kalshi but remains a brainstorming thread with no product details or timeline.
Leaderboards that rank by skill rather than profit address a genuine trader complaint: on Polymarket, existing boards favor whales over accurate forecasters, warping incentive structures and social proof. If skill-based rankings gain traction, they could reshape who attracts copy-trading flow and which voices shape market narrative, pressuring Polymarket to integrate or match the feature itself.
The Reddit user's free tool and Arkham's institutional-grade Elo system test two paths—grassroots adoption versus exchange-level partnership—competing to become the default reputation layer. For Kalshi, which lacks comparable third-party ranking tools, the gap represents a product vulnerability as traders increasingly expect skill-verification across venues.