Polymarket traders price SpaceX IPO at $2.3T as pre-IPO contracts launch
Polymarket traders are pricing a hypothetical SpaceX IPO at a $2.3 trillion first-day valuation, according to posts tracked by Unusual Whales and Ark Invest Tracker. Related contracts show 78% odds of closing above $2 trillion, 84% above $1.8 trillion, 91.5% above $1.6 trillion, and 96% above $1.2 trillion. SpaceX is reportedly targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation for its potential listing, though the company remains privately held with no announced concrete IPO plans. Polymarket and Kalshi have both opened pre-IPO betting on SpaceX and other private firms this month, per The Information. The Polymarket data appears through its partnership with Dow Jones, publisher of The Wall Street Journal, which began live-coverage of the pricing on May 21.
Kalshi must now match Polymarket's SpaceX pricing data or cede the pre-IPO vertical to its rival's Nasdaq-backed partnership. The two platforms are already running divergent contracts on OpenAI and Anthropic valuations, and any persistent gap on SpaceX will cost Kalshi the arbitrage flow that cements benchmark pricing.
Polymarket's third pre-IPO valuation launch this month, after OpenAI and Anthropic contracts with Kalshi, extends its Nasdaq Private Market partnership into the SpaceX vertical as both platforms race to lock up private-company event-contract liquidity ahead of any listing wave.